Golf Community Reviews

    Woody Allen was once asked his religion.  "Jewish," he said, "with an explanation."  He could have been speaking for all weather forecasters, Hillary Clinton (on the subject of sniper fire in Bosnia), and Britney Spears' mother.  Oh, yes, and housing market "experts."  What great jobs these real estate mavens have; they can be wrong, sometimes scandalously so, but they cover their overly rosy predictions with explanations that project even rosier ones.
    It is hard to put much faith in the opinions of a trade association or real estate market observers whose livelihood depends on the rest of us believing it is always a good time to buy (and sell).  When prices are trending up, it is a great time to buy, they say, because you will make money.  When prices are in precipitous decline, as they are now, it is also a great time to buy because sellers are desperate and you can negotiate the lowest possible price (and prices always go up eventually, so you will, of course, make money).  The mainstream media goes along with the duplicity because they are just interested in the drama of the story; it is rare they ever quote someone with a balanced, moderate opinion.  Instead, we are served a constant diet of seesaw journalism, the extreme points of view, the shouting matches that the media somehow sees as balance.  Recall the old Saturday Night Live send-up of CBS' Point/Counterpoint? ("Jane, you ignorant slut.")
    The most unbalanced media when it comes to discussions of real estate are those for whom bad news about the market is bad for business, magazines like Where to Retire and Living Southern Style.  These media purport to help us understand our best options for buying a home, but what they really do is cloak ads for specific communities in the guise of editorial material.  The formula is pretty straightforward:  Community A pays for an ad in the publication and the editors add a story on the community to the editorial mix.  The rest of the publication includes a few articles about green living, or how great a city Tampa is, and maybe even some general piece on the housing market.  Just don't ever expect to read a comment in a magazine like Where to Retire from, say, Yale professor Robert Shiller, one of the more sober and helpful analysts of the housing market.
    An article in the winter 2008 edition of Living Southern Style entitled "2008 Real Estate Trends" is a prime example of pumping sunshine into editorial material.  The article features comments by Elizabeth Weintraub, a real estate agent and columnist at About.com.  In the piece, Weintraub argues that, in 2008, "interest rates will stabilize...investors will return to the market in higher numbers, since they recognize that a buyers' market is an excellent time to purchase real estate."  The article adds that, "according to Weintraub, home prices are not likely to plummet...they will more likely decline gently and flatten."  The expert, according to the magazine, also "predicts that the housing glut will increase at the beginning of the year and decrease sharply, as homeowners pull their listings from a saturated market."
    Well, she had the glut part right, but we are now beyond the beginning of the year, and inventories surged again in April, according to National Association of Realtors figures released this past week.  Existing home sales fell for the second month in a row, and prices dropped sharply from the same month (and quarter) in 2007.  And although Weintraub's prediction about stabilizing interest rates was accurate, it should have been accompanied with an explanation that folks without bulletproof credit ratings were finding it harder to get loans to buy the low-priced houses.  Thus, interest rates alone are not having the desired effect to reduce inventories.  
    In short, Ms. Weintraub and her ilk have no more discriminating insights about the real estate market than your Uncle Max.  But that doesn't stop some of these so-called advice magazines from trotting these people out time and time again.
    If you visit About.com, you will find Ms. Weintraub holding forth on the details of buying and selling a house.  You will not find her commenting on her predictions of just a few months ago.  However, you can bet that, soon enough, she will show up again in some venue that shares her interest in selling a sow's ear as a silk purse.  Caveat emptor.

    I hit the road for a week early tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.  My first stop is coastal South Carolina, Pawleys Island, for just one day before I head for the mountains in western Carolina for a stop at three interesting communities.  The first is Cherokee Valley, a 550-acre community just 25 minutes outside of Greenville, SC, and featuring a P.B. Dye-designed golf course.  The club accepts both members and outside play.  Homes are priced from $300,000 to over $1 million, with a group of cottages in the mid-six-figure range.     

    After Cherokee Valley, it is on to Connestee Falls, just south of the popular North Carolina mountain town of Brevard.  After playing the George Cobb designed golf course and touring the neighborhoods, I drive farther up into the Blue Ridge Mountains to a new lake-oriented community called Bear Lake Reserve.  Unusually, Bear Lake has built just a nine-hole course by Nicklaus Design, and I am expecting it to be somewhat special given its short routing.  The course doesn't open for a few months but, weather permitting, I promise some nice photos.
    If you are interested in me checking out any communities between Greenville and Brevard, let me know and I will do my best.  You can see my overall route by clicking here.

The Coves clubhouse will sit on top of the Round Mountain with views to as far as 50 miles. (Image supplied by The Coves)

    Blue Ridge Mountain golfing communities are trying to hold their own in this tough housing market and in the face of brutal competition in western North Carolina.  Some new community seems to open in the Carolina mountains virtually every week.  You know the competition is fierce when you hear national radio ads for some of these communities every day, as I do on my car's XM Satellite Radio.  
    Next week, during a brief trip to the mountains, I will visit and report on the recently opened and remote Bear Lake Reserve, as well as the more established Connestee Falls, located near the artsy town of Brevard.  For the time being, though, here are some notes and observations from a conversation with Bruce Dickinson, general manager at The Coves at Round Mountain, a year-old property in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, six miles from Lenoir and about 30 minutes from Hickory, NC and Blowing Rock.
    The Coves has a somewhat unusual price/amenities equation.  The promised amenities, including two equestrian centers, a spa and a designer golf course (Hale Irwin), aim to compete with such upscale competitors in the area as Queen's Gap and Laurelmor.  Yet with 1 to 5 acre home sites beginning around $70,000, and lots with mountain and golf views in the mid $100s, The Coves appears to be a bargain compared to its competitors.  (Caveat: I haven't visited The Coves yet, nor its competitors' properties, so take the price/amenities comment with a grain of salt for now).  Nevertheless, you may have read here some weeks ago that one of our readers, a Florida real estate agent who had done thorough research on mountain communities, was so impressed during his visit to The Coves that he purchased three lots at an average of $125,000. The Coves, he believed, offered the greatest upside as an investment.
    We spoke with the Coves general manager last week to get a feel for how things are progressing on site.  Dickinson, who has more than 20 years experience helping to establish new developments, arrived at The Coves from a community on the Georgia coast.  We asked him if he hit any traffic from Floridian "bounce backs" on his way north; these bounce backs, or half backs, have decided they have had enough of the heat and traffic and hurricane threats in the Sunshine State.
    "We see a number of them here at The Coves," Dickinson said.  "Some are moving here full time, and some intend to start with a second home and maybe move here permanently later."
    We mentioned that we had read about certain thermal idiosyncrasies in the Blue Ridge Mountain valleys, and that it was possible to ski and play golf on the same day in January.  
    "That's absolutely true," said Dickinson. "I have skied in the morning and played golf in the afternoon."  The ski area is about 40 minutes from The Coves.
    The Coves is the first golf community by The Archer Group, which has developed other communities in the southern U.S.  They chose to delay the golf course for a few years; construction begins in a few months and the course will open in 2011.  Although such a delay makes sense in terms of cash flow, the risk is that the lag will keep buyers on the sidelines waiting for the amenities to be built.  However, given The Coves' reasonable price points and the recent announcement of Hale Irwin's involvement, any affect on sales will likely be minimal.
    Irwin's lead architect, Rick Robbins, will design The Coves' course, with input from the former U.S. Open champ.  Although Irwin's design reputation and experience do not rise to the levels of his former PGA competitors Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer, his name recognition among baby boomer golfers is solid.  No details about the course are available yet, but if the design reflects Irwin's personality, it will be brawny and demanding.  The course will open with access to the public; perhaps one day, when most of the anticipated 1,700 residences are built on the 3,600 acres at The Coves, members will compel the club to go private.
    The Coves community, Dickinson says, should appeal to golfers and horse lovers in equal measure.  Two equestrian centers are on the way, one due this fall for western riders and one for the more formal English riding next year.  Riders will have access to 25 miles of trails inside the community's gates.  A 160-acre lake and five miles of frontage on the Johns River will form the centerpieces for those drawn to water; a kayak and canoe shed is almost complete, according to Dickinson.  Of course, like any self-respecting community that appeals to baby boomers, The Coves is building tennis courts, pools and fitness centers, as well as a sleek clubhouse.  A "world class" spa is promised as well.
    Some condominium and villa style housing will be built at The Coves, but single-family homes will predominate.  To date, The Coves has sold 120 home sites, meaning that plenty of choices remain.  A week ago, the developers released 70 home sites along the river at prices between $70,000 and $250,000.  From other points on the property, the developers promise 50-mile mountain views on clear days.  At just 10 miles or so away, Walmart and other conveniences are a lot closer.
    The Coves at Round Mountain, Lenoir, NC.  877-815-2466.  Web: www.thecovesnc.com
    If you would like an introduction to The Coves or to any other community in the western Carolina mountains, let me know and I will put you in touch with a qualified agent.

Memorial Prices:  Some homes at Lennar Corp.'s Colonial Heritage community in Williamsburg, VA come with impressive financing this weekend.  The golf course in the age-restricted community is one of the toughest we have played.

    The housing crisis may be starting to wear out even the most ardent Polyannas.  If you are a dedicated visitor to this space, you know that we are not big fans of economists who try to blow sunshine up our storm drains in the face of all prevailing evidence of dark times in the housing market.  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, has come in for especially negative attention here for the illogic of his spinmeistering.
    But after reading today's report by Yun and the NAR of the latest housing sales data, we are cautiously optimistic that the economist may be

breaking the string of unremittingly positive comments started by his predecessor, David Lareah.  Although his report is filled with customary equivocation, Yun actually seems to have given an overall honest read of the numbers.
    Consider this comment from Mr. Yun about those contemplating selling their homes in the current over-inventoried markets:  "...the high inventory levels are uncomfortable. It is also a signal to many home sellers to be more realistic about pricing to attract buyers. Unless you have immaculate, unique home features, don't even bother listing if you are not going to concede on prices in today's market."
    Yikes.  Who are you, and what have you done with Lawrence Yun?  The economist we know would never even hint that people should refrain from listing their homes with a broker under any circumstances.  Since we have preached here a number of times the mantra of reasonable pricing, it is nice to see the "expert" finally agrees.  More importantly, he has offered advice that people can actually use to their benefit, even if it runs counter to the traditional hype the NAR has spun for its members and homeowners.
    In his report, Mr. Yun also indicates that previously strong markets showed a loss in terms of raw sales in the first quarter of 2008.  Raleigh and Charlotte, NC, for example, suffered sales declines, although prices continued to increase incrementally in both markets.  Our own two cents on this phenomenon, as we have said before, is that if you are contemplating a move south to a market where prices are holding up, but prices where you currently live are not, then take what the market has to offer and head south.  If you wait, it is quite possible the spread between what you will get in a few years for your primary home and what you will pay for your home in the south will widen.
    GolfCommunityReviews and Lawrence Yun in agreement?  Maybe there is a shot at world peace.  Read Yun's full commentary here .

    National builder Lennar is having a blowout sale this weekend that features impressively low-rate financing for a select group of its new homes.  Lennar will finance purchases of the homes at 2.88% the first year, 3.88% the second year and at 5.38% for the life of the loan.  Included in the group is Colonial Heritage, an age-restricted (55+) community in Williamsburg, VA, with a challenging Arthur Hills golf course (challenging is an understatement, it was tough).  Prices on the Villas in the special promotional program are mostly in the $300s.  Check Lennar.com for other homes that qualify for the special financing.

The Arthur Hills course at Colonial Heritage accepts public play.  The course is just too tough for some of the residents of the 55+ community. 

A few items of interest from the news...

    Whatever you call them  Football is an unlikely source for names for those who relocate, but the terms "bounce backs" and "halfbacks" are commonly applied to those folks who moved from the northern U.S. to Florida some years ago and now are moving from the Sunshine State to the Carolinas (bouncing half way back, to fully explain both terms).  Now comes a new football related term for those who winter for three months of the year in Florida.  According to the "Word Watch" column in the Hartford(CT) Courant, these snowbirds are now referred to as "quarterbacks" for the fraction of the year they spend in the deep south.
    Speaking of heat  Leading the list of the 10 most desired features in a home is air conditioning, according to the National Association of Realtors at their site, realtor.org.  A two (or more) car garage ranks second, followed in order by a walk-in closet in the master bedroom, a backyard/play area, cable TV/satellite wiring and high-speed internet access.
    That's Rich  One of these days, I am going to get my real estate license if, for no other reason, to attend National Association of Realtors meetings and lobby to remove its executives.  Consider this profound Neroism from the NAR's president, Richard Gaylord:  "It's more important than ever to examine what's happening with home prices at the city and neighborhood level.  The old real estate mantra of ‘location, location, location' is perhaps more relevant today than ever before.  Consumers should check with REALTORS® for local expertise on what's going on in their own area because conditions can vary considerably from one neighborhood to the next."  Thank you Captain Obvious.

    I received and published today a comment from one of our readers, Vic, praising the Rock Harbor Golf Club in Winchester, VA, adjacent to Interstate 81.  Even though I had not played the course, I mentioned Rock Harbor last September in an article about a local bed and breakfast place. 

    Here are  Vic's comments in full, which have also been posted with the original article: 

    "Rock Harbor is possibly the most beautiful course I have ever played, bar none.  Hat's off to Mr. Denny Perry and his vision.  The ee boxes are in better condition than most of the greens on most courses and the landscaping is simply incredible.  I drove 180 miles round trip to play this course when I lived in Fredericksbug, and since I moved to Florida two years ago, I have made the trip 3 times.  I can't say enough good about this course.  Keep up the great work, Mr. Perry."

    Here is what I wrote last September as an add on to my review of the Long Hill B&B in Winchester:

    "The closest course is Rock Harbor, just a few miles away from Long Hill.  The 18-hole course was designed and built by Denny Perry, a local paving company owner, who draws water from his adjacent quarry to keep the Bentgrass greens and fairways in nice shape.  The course is a little weird in that it throws two par 3s in a row at you on the back nine, but such idiosyncrasies can have a rough charm to them when the course designer is a neophyte.  Compensating touches are two 600-yard plus par 5s with water that runs the length of the fairways to the green, an island green on a short par 3, and the customary off-the-beaten-track green fees of less than $50 on weekdays (slightly more on weekends).   Rating and slope are 72.1 and 127, respectively, from the tees at 6,700 yards.  Rock Harbor's web site has a nice tour of the course with advice from pro Jerry Wampler on how to play it.
    Rock Harbor Golf Club, 365 Rock Harbor Drive, Winchester, VA. (540) 722-7111.  Web site: www.RockHarborGolf.com"

    Winchester is on my way south to visit my son at college, and you can bet I will put it on our list to play soon.  Look for a review and photos in the coming months.  Thanks, Vic, for your comments.

Southwest Airlines offers service to Jacksonville, FL, for those who contemplate a home on Amelia Island and membership at the resort's only private club, Long Point.

 

    The latest University of Michigan customer survey data is in for U.S. airlines, and it confirms what even the infrequent flier knows - the airlines stink in terms of the most basic customer service, such as depositing you on  time where they promise to get you, your baggage included.  U.S. Airways and United were at the bottom of the dismal list, scoring 54 and 56 respectively on a scale of 1 to 100.  This is bad but not surprising news to those of us who fly U.S. Airways to southeastern U.S. destinations.  These two bottom dwellers, by the way, are planning to merge, prompting the UM business professor who supervised the survey to comment in an AP story that, "When it comes to mergers, combining two negatives doesn't make a positive."  
    There wasn't much positive about my experience with Delta Airlines on a flight from Newark to Atlanta last week.  Delta scored a dismal 60 in the survey and confirmed it for me.  According to the ticket agent at the airport, my early afternoon flight to Atlanta had been cancelled because of "bad weather" several hours before it was set to leave.  I had received no phone call or email about the flight's status.  When I arrived -- two hours before my scheduled flight -- it was barely raining in Newark, the cloud ceiling was high and the winds were blowing at perhaps 20 to 25 MPH, certainly within the range of safe takeoffs.  Miraculously - I mean that tongue in cheek - Delta had already placed me on a plane two hours later.  In the waiting area for

that flight, I met others who also had been shifted to the next flight, which wasn't quite full, prompting me to consider whether Delta was looking out for my safety or saving fuel costs by canceling the initial flight.  In the cattle business, the cows are not the top priority.  
    Faced with a nearly four-hour wait, I had asked the ticket agent for a pass to the Delta Airline club.  "Sorry, sir," he said, explaining that weather-related interruptions did not qualify the passenger for such special treatment.  
    Enough about my travails.  What does the airlines' inabilities to provide decent service mean for those of us looking to move to a golf community in the southern U.S.?  The University of Michigan data, which was reported broadly  today, gives only Southwest Airlines relatively high marks with a 79.  I'm not a big user of Southwest, but I testify that my few experiences with the airline have been good ones, my body and golf clubs arriving essentially when Southwest promised they would.  If you live in New England, especially near Providence or Hartford, Southwest connections to key places in the southern U.S. are pretty good, although you almost always have to change planes somewhere (the same is true of the other, more expensive airlines).  However, some nonstop flights to great golfing areas do exist on Southwest, such as between Hartford and Austin: Philadelphia and Jacksonville, FL; Providence and Ft. Lauderdale; Manchester, NH and Phoenix; Chicago (Midway) to New Orleans; Detroit to Orlando; Long Island (NY) to Ft. Myers, FL; and Buffalo to Tampa.
    If you are planning to head south in the coming years and expect to do a fair amount of travel, not only check out the proximity to a good airport, but consider also the proximity to good airlines.  Sadly, according to research and personal experience, they are far and few between.

Southwest offers nonstop service from Hartford, CT and other locations to Austin where you will find the dramatic River Place Golf Club. 

    Like politics, housing numbers are local.  National numbers about housing starts, sale price trends and unsold homes are interesting, but they really are not relevant for anyone but economists and pundits.  Whether you are intending to sell your house or buy one, or do both, you should be much more interested in the more granular data for metro markets but preferably down to the zip code or, better yet, neighborhood level.
    Yesterday in my hometown Hartford (CT) Courant, a local real estate broker made some good points about just how much faith we should put in national numbers, which is to say zero.  I am not inclined typically to quote brokers who, after all, have a vested interest in pumping sunshine into the local markets.  But this broker's comments make sense for those of us who are skeptical about the national figures' relevance, and even more skeptical about the spin the pundits and real estate industry put on them.
    The letter is posted (for the time being) at the Courant web site under the heading "Local Figures Tell Real Story" [click here for link].